30/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Monthly Market Update: November 2025
Currency Movements
US Dollar (USD)
November delivered two clear phases for the Dollar. Early and mid-month, USD strengthened meaningfully as hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, robust Non-Farm Payrolls, and resilient US data pushed markets to scale back expectations for a December rate cut. Sentiment shifted sharply in the final week: soft inflation and retail sales figures, coupled with increasingly dovish Fed expectations, drove USD into a broad decline. By month-end, markets were pricing an 87% probability of a December cut, pushing the Dollar lower across the board.
British Pound (GBP)
Sterling began the month under notable pressure. A “dovish hold” from the Bank of England, combined with weak labour data, falling retail sales, and heightened pre-budget fiscal uncertainty, sent GBP to multi-month lows against both USD and EUR. That narrative flipped in the final week: the Autumn Budget—highlighting £22bn in fiscal headroom and £26bn in tax increases—reassured markets and helped Sterling rally. GBP/USD posted a seven-session winning streak into month-end, making GBP one of the month’s strongest performers.
Euro (EUR)
The Euro traded cautiously for most of November, hampered by political uncertainty in France and risk-averse sentiment early in the month. Better-than-expected Eurozone data—particularly German industrial production and GDP—provided support and helped the Euro stabilise. As the US Dollar weakened sharply in the final week, EUR/USD extended gains, taking the pair back toward multi-week highs.
Australian Dollar (AUD)
The Australian Dollar started the month under pressure due to a cautious Reserve Bank of Australia tone and softer Chinese data. However, strong domestic employment figures and a significant upside surprise in monthly CPI (3.8% year-on-year) helped AUD rebound, with the weaker USD amplifying gains later in the month.
Canadian Dollar (CAD)
The Loonie traded broadly weaker early in November as crude oil prices slid and Canadian inflation softened. CAD stabilised mid-month, supported by improving oil prices, but was unable to fully benefit from the late-month USD decline due to ongoing concerns around Canadian economic momentum and anticipation of Q3 GDP data.
Swiss Franc (CHF)
The Franc saw two-way price action across the month. Early softness was driven by weak domestic inflation and expectations that the SNB may have to ease again. However, broader USD weakness and stability in SNB policy helped CHF firm up late in the month, sending USD/CHF back toward the 0.8050 region.
Events Driving the Market
Early-month hawkish Fed minutes and strong NFP numbers extinguished hopes of a December Fed rate cut. Later, soft US CPI and retail sales reignited expectations, with December cut probability soaring to 87%. This reversal was the primary driver of USD volatility throughout November.
The BoE kept rates at 4.0%, but with several MPC members voting for a cut. Combined with falling UK retail sales, rising unemployment, and weakening inflation, expectations for a December rate cut climbed steadily—before being partially offset by a market-friendly Autumn Budget.
The ECB maintained steady policy guidance while Eurozone data—particularly from Germany—surprised to the upside. Political uncertainty in France limited EUR gains early in the month, but November’s broad USD softness ultimately helped the Euro strengthen.
Australian employment figures and a sharp uptick in inflation supported the AUD. Better Chinese industrial production and retail numbers provided additional momentum, especially in the second half of the month.
Oil weakness weighed heavily on CAD, especially mid-month. Even as USD softened later on, the Canadian Dollar remained constrained by concerns surrounding domestic growth and upcoming GDP releases.
Market Outlook
As we move into December, attention turns to three key themes:
Sterling enters December on firmer footing following the Autumn Budget, while the US Dollar faces renewed downward pressure as easing expectations intensify. EUR, AUD and CHF are well-positioned to benefit if USD weakness extends into year-end.