19/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 19th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remained under pressure below 1.1340 following the UK CPI release. Headline inflation eased to 3.6% y/y in October, while core CPI dipped to 3.4%, both in line with expectations. Services inflation also moderated, reinforcing BoE rate cut expectations for December. Meanwhile, the Euro held firm ahead of final Eurozone HICP data, with ECB policymakers maintaining a cautious stance.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain soft unless UK retail sales or PMIs surprise. ECB tone and Eurozone inflation will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD sliped to 1.3120 as Sterling weakened on softer inflation and fiscal uncertainty. The Dollar held firm ahead of FOMC minutes and Thursday’s delayed NFP release.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless UK data or Fed minutes shift sentiment. Retail sales and PMIs will be key.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD dipped to 1.1570 after another rejection at 1.1600. Risk aversion and a firmer Dollar weighed on the pair, despite soft US labour data. Eurozone HICP is expected to confirm inflation near the ECB’s 2% target.
Outlook: Euro may remain vulnerable unless inflation surprises. FOMC minutes and NFP will be pivotal for direction.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD slipped below 0.6500 as risk sentiment soured and equities sold off. Wage growth met expectations at 3.4% y/y in Q3, while RBA minutes signalled a balanced stance. The Aussie remains sensitive to global risk appetite and China’s macro outlook.
Outlook: AUD may stabilise if risk sentiment improves. Wage data and US NFP will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.4000 as oil prices softened and Fed cut bets eased. WTI fell after a large API inventory build, while Canadian CPI showed easing inflation. BoC is expected to hold rates steady, though firm wage growth and inflation may limit downside for the Loonie.
Outlook: CAD may remain rangebound unless oil rebounds. BoC tone and US data will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF climbed to 0.8000, extending its recovery for a fourth day. The pair was supported by weaker Swiss GDP and a firmer Dollar, though SNB policy stability and safe-haven demand may cap upside.
Outlook: USD/CHF may consolidate unless FOMC minutes shift Fed expectations. SNB tone and inflation outlook will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling softened on cooling inflation and fiscal concerns, while the Euro drifted lower amid risk aversion. The US Dollar held firm ahead of the FOMC minutes and delayed NFP data, with Fed commentary mixed. The Australian Dollar weakened on equity market losses, while the Canadian Dollar steadied near 1.4000 amid softer oil and CPI. The Swiss Franc traded cautiously as USD/CHF tested key resistance.