18/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 18th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR held flat near 1.1350 as BoE rate cut expectations remained elevated. Subdued GDP growth and a loosening labour market have prompted markets to price in a December cut to 3.75%. Meanwhile, the Euro was supported by the ECB’s cautious tone, with policymakers reiterating no need for immediate adjustments. UK CPI and PPI data due Wednesday may shift sentiment.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may soften further unless UK inflation surprises to the upside. ECB tone and Eurozone data will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD remained subdued around 1.3150, weighed by fiscal uncertainty and soft macro data. Chancellor Reeves’ decision to abandon income tax hikes raised questions over deficit funding, while weak GDP and labour figures bolstered BoE easing bets.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless UK CPI or US data surprises. Autumn Budget and Fed commentary will shape direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD hovered near 1.1600 after trimming losses. The Euro remained under pressure from risk-off sentiment and a stronger Dollar, though Fed Governor Waller’s dovish remarks provided some relief.
Outlook: Euro may consolidate unless US data surprises. ADP and Factory Orders will be key short-term drivers.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD recovered to 0.6500 after hawkish RBA minutes. Policymakers signalled no urgency to cut rates, citing resilient demand and sticky inflation. However, easing remains on the table if growth falters.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if Q3 Wage Price Index beats expectations. RBA tone and China’s macro signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.4050, consolidating after Monday’s gains. Softer Canadian CPI and weaker oil prices capped the Loonie, while Fed caution and risk aversion supported the Dollar.
Outlook: CAD may weaken further if oil remains soft. US data backlog and BoC tone will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF dipped to 0.7950 as CHF gained on tariff relief and SNB policy stability. Switzerland’s deal to reduce US tariffs to 15% and expectations of a steady SNB rate at 0% supported the Franc.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. SNB inflation outlook and US macro clarity will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remains under pressure amid fiscal uncertainty and BoE rate cut speculation, while the Euro holds steady on cautious ECB tone. The US Dollar stabilised as Fed cut bets faded and risk aversion returned. The Australian Dollar recovered on hawkish RBA minutes, while the Canadian Dollar consolidated amid soft CPI and oil. The Swiss Franc gained on tariff relief and SNB policy confidence.