17/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 17th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR holds steady around 1.1350 as BoE rate cut expectations continued to weigh on Sterling. UK GDP growth slowed to 0.1% QoQ in Q3, while fiscal concerns intensified following reports that the government may scrap income tax hikes. Interest-rate swaps now imply a 79% probability of a 25bps BoE cut in December. The Euro remained supported by cautious ECB commentary, with Kazāks reiterating no need for rate adjustments.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK CPI surprises. Eurozone GDP and ECB tone will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD edged up to 1.3180 but remained rangebound as fiscal uncertainty and weak macro data capped gains. The Pound rebounded from session lows near 1.3135, though BoE easing expectations and concerns over public finances limited upside.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless Fed tone shifts. UK CPI and delayed US data releases will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD drifted lower to 1.1600 amid risk-off sentiment and fading Fed rate cut bets. The Euro extended Friday’s reversal from 1.1650 highs, with markets awaiting delayed US macro data and Eurozone growth forecasts.
Outlook: Euro may remain soft unless US data disappoints. ECB commentary and Fed speeches will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD slipped as Fed commentary lifted the Dollar and RBA cut expectations remained low. ASX futures implied only a 6% chance of a December rate cut, while Deputy Governor Hauser maintained a cautious tone.
Outlook: AUD may stabilise if Chinese sentiment improves. RBA guidance and US-China trade developments will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.4050, supported by weaker oil prices and fading Fed cut bets. WTI retreated after Russia resumed operations at Novorossiysk, while traders awaited Canada’s CPI data for October.
Outlook: CAD may gain if CPI surprises to the upside. Oil trends and Fed tone will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF rose to 0.7950 as Fed cut odds declined to 46%. The pair gained for a second session, though CHF remained supported by SNB policy stability and a 15% tariff agreement with the US.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain firm unless SNB signals easing. Fed commentary and Swiss inflation expectations will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remains rangebound amid fiscal uncertainty and BoE rate cut speculation, while the Euro softens on risk aversion and cautious ECB tone. The US Dollar stabilised as Fed cut bets faded, with delayed macro data in focus. The Australian Dollar dipped on reduced RBA easing expectations, while the Canadian Dollar was pressured by oil softness. The Swiss Franc held firm despite USD strength, supported by SNB policy and trade relief.