14/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 14th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR broke below 1.1300 as fiscal uncertainty and weak UK data weighed on Sterling. Reports that PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves may scrap income tax hikes ahead of the Autumn Budget raised concerns over fiscal discipline. Meanwhile, BoE rate cut bets surged to 80% for December following soft GDP and labour data. The Euro held firm ahead of Eurozone Q3 GDP, supported by cautious ECB commentary.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK CPI surprises next week. Eurozone GDP and ECB tone will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD slipped to 1.3130, reversing Thursday’s gains as Sterling weakened on fiscal and growth concerns. The Dollar remained subdued amid uncertainty over delayed US data releases, though hawkish Fed commentary capped downside.
Outlook: GBP/USD may consolidate unless Fed tone shifts. UK CPI and US macro backlog will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD held near 1.1650, extending its two-week rally as Dollar weakness persisted. The Euro was supported by cautious ECB tone and expectations of steady Q3 GDP growth. Fed officials remained reluctant to ease, but data blackout limited Dollar traction.
Outlook: Euro may remain firm unless US data surprises. ECB commentary and Fed speeches will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD traded above 0.6500, supported by strong Australian employment data and resilient Chinese macro prints. China’s retail sales and industrial production beat expectations, while RBA maintained a cautious tone.
Outlook: AUD may remain supported if risk sentiment holds. RBA guidance and China’s growth outlook will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD hovered near 1.4020, pressured by firmer oil prices and cautious Fed sentiment. Crude rose after a Ukrainian drone strike hit Russian infrastructure, while Canadian rate expectations remained stable.
Outlook: CAD may gain if oil strength persists. BoC tone and US data resumption will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF edged down to 0.7920, revisiting three-week lows as Dollar weakness persisted. Traders trimmed Fed cut bets, but Swiss inflation data surprised to the downside, with producer prices falling 0.3% m/m.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. SNB inflation outlook and US macro clarity will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling weakened on fiscal uncertainty and soft macro data, while the Euro held firm ahead of Q3 GDP. The US Dollar remained under pressure amid data delays and cautious Fed tone. The Australian Dollar gained on strong employment and Chinese resilience, while the Canadian Dollar was supported by oil strength. The Swiss Franc traded firm despite soft producer inflation, as SNB maintained confidence in its outlook.