14/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 13th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remained under pressure below 1.1320 after UK GDP data confirmed a slowdown. Q3 GDP rose just 0.1% QoQ, missing expectations, while September’s monthly figure contracted 0.1%. Industrial and manufacturing output also declined. The Euro held firm on cautious ECB commentary, with Lagarde and Schnabel signalling no urgency to adjust rates.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain soft unless UK data surprises. Eurozone industrial production and ECB tone will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded near 1.3130 after rebounding from an intraday low of 1.3100. Sterling was weighed by weak GDP and production data, reinforcing BoE rate cut expectations. Political uncertainty surrounding PM Starmer’s leadership added to downside risks.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless Fed commentary shifts. UK political developments and US data resumption will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD held near 1.1590 after six days of gains. The Euro was supported by steady German inflation and cautious ECB tone, while the Dollar remained subdued following the end of the US government shutdown.
Outlook: Euro may consolidate unless Fed signals hawkish intent. ECB commentary and US data releases will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD rose to 0.6575 after stronger-than-expected Australian employment data. October saw a 42.2K job gain and a drop in unemployment to 4.3%. RBA’s Hauser reiterated the need for restrictive policy, while Fed cut expectations supported the Aussie.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if risk sentiment holds. RBA tone and Chinese macro signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held steady near 1.4010 after the US shutdown ended. The Dollar was supported by hawkish Fed commentary, while the Loonie remained firm on strong Canadian labour data and expectations of a BoC hold.
Outlook: CAD may gain if BoC signals policy stability. Oil prices and Fed tone will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF edged up to 0.7990 but remained below key resistance at 0.8007. The pair was supported by the end of the US shutdown and upcoming Fed commentary, though the bearish outlook persists below the 100-day EMA.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain capped unless Fed tone shifts. SNB policy and US-Swiss trade developments will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remained under pressure after weak UK GDP and production data, while the Euro held firm on ECB caution. The US Dollar steadied following the end of the government shutdown, with Fed commentary in focus. The Australian Dollar gained on strong employment data, and the Canadian Dollar remained supported by labour strength. The Swiss Franc traded mixed, with technical resistance capping USD/CHF gains.