14/11/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 12th November 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR falls below 1.1330 following German inflation data and continued BoE dovish speculation. Germany’s HICP rose 2.3% y/y in October, in line with expectations, reinforcing ECB policy stability. Meanwhile, BoE policymaker Megan Greene expressed doubts over the restrictiveness of UK policy, adding to expectations of a December rate cut.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain pressured unless UK GDP surprises. ECB tone and Eurozone sentiment will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD traded near 1.3140, extending losses as Sterling struggled amid BoE easing expectations. Greene’s remarks and soft wage data reinforced the case for a December cut. The Dollar gained modestly ahead of the House vote on the funding bill.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound unless Fed commentary shifts. UK GDP and US inflation data will be key drivers.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD held near 1.1600 after briefly topping two-week highs. The Euro was supported by steady German inflation and weak US employment data, though moves were subdued ahead of Fed commentary and the House vote.
Outlook: Euro may consolidate unless Fed signals hawkish intent. ECB speeches and US data resumption will shape momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD edged higher to 0.6550, supported by RBA caution and anticipation of strong October employment data. Deputy Governor Hauser reiterated the need for restrictive policy, while Fed dovish bets weighed on the Dollar.
Outlook: AUD may gain if labour data beats expectations. RBA tone and China’s macro signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD held near 1.4010, flat after weak US employment data and ahead of BoC deliberations. The Dollar steadied as shutdown resolution neared, while Canadian employment strength continued to support the Loonie.
Outlook: CAD may strengthen if BoC signals a pause. Oil prices and Fed commentary will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF hovered near 0.8000, pressured by Fed rate cut speculation and firm Swiss Franc. SNB officials reiterated inflation resilience, while trade deal optimism with the US added support to CHF.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain soft unless Fed tone shifts. SNB policy and trade developments will shape CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remained under pressure as BoE rate cut expectations intensified, while the Euro held firm on ECB stability and steady German inflation. The US Dollar steadied ahead of the House vote and Fed commentary, with employment data reinforcing dovish bets. The Australian Dollar gained on RBA caution, and the Canadian Dollar remained supported by strong labour data. The Swiss Franc traded firm amid SNB confidence and trade optimism.