30/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 30th October 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR held at 1.1350, its lowest since May 2024, as Sterling remained under pressure from soft inflation data and fiscal concerns. UK shop inflation slowed to 1.0% y/y in October, while expectations of tax hikes in the Autumn Budget and a potential BoE rate cut in November weighed on sentiment. The Euro gained modestly ahead of today’s ECB decision, with markets pricing no change in rates but watching Lagarde’s tone for clues on future easing.
Outlook: GBP/EUR may remain subdued unless BoE expectations shift. ECB commentary and Eurozone GDP figures will guide direction.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD steadied near 1.3200 after touching a two-month low below 1.3150 on Wednesday. The pair remains pressured by UK fiscal uncertainty and rising BoE rate cut bets.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain soft unless Fed signals further easing. US data and UK budget developments will shape momentum.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD rebounded above 1.1600 after Wednesday’s drop, supported by improved risk sentiment following the US-China trade deal. The Eurozone economy showed mixed signals, with German GDP flat in Q3 and Eurozone growth slowing to 1.2% y/y.
Outlook: Euro may gain if ECB signals policy pause. Lagarde’s press conference and GDP data will be pivotal.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD traded around 0.6580, supported by optimism over the Trump-Xi meeting and stronger Australian inflation data. Q3 CPI rose 3.2% y/y, beating expectations, while RBA Trimmed Mean CPI printed at 3.0% y/y.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if inflation momentum persists. RBA tone and China trade signals will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD rose to 1.3950, recovering from one-month lows after the Fed’s hawkish tone offset the BoC’s “hawkish cut.” The US-China trade deal added support for the Dollar, while Canadian rate expectations stabilised following the BoC’s 25bps cut to 2.25%.
Outlook: CAD may remain steady if BoC signals end of easing. Oil prices and trade sentiment will influence direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF climbed to 0.7970, retracing recent losses as the Dollar firmed post-Fed. The pair remains rangebound, with upside capped near 0.7985.
Outlook: USD/CHF may consolidate unless Fed signals further cuts. Swiss ZEW data and global risk tone will guide CHF sentiment.
Final Summary
Sterling remains weak amid inflation softness and fiscal concerns, while the Euro steadies ahead of the ECB decision. The US Dollar firmed after Powell’s hawkish tone, despite the expected rate cut. Commodity currencies are mixed, with AUD supported by strong inflation and trade optimism, and CAD stabilising after the BoC’s rate move. The Swiss Franc trades cautiously as SNB easing bets fade.