27/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 24th October 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR remains subdued near 1.1470 despite a surprise rise in UK Retail Sales. September sales rose 0.5% m/m and 1.5% y/y, beating expectations, while Core Retail Sales climbed 2.3% y/y. However, the Pound failed to gain traction amid rising BoE rate cut expectations and cautious remarks from MPC member Dhingra. The Euro was supported by stronger Consumer Confidence, which improved to -14.2 in October, its highest in eight months.
Outlook: Sterling may remain under pressure ahead of UK PMI data. Euro sentiment could firm if ECB commentary reinforces the improving consumer outlook.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD holds above 1.3300 after five consecutive daily losses. The Pound struggled to recover despite upbeat retail data, as BoE rate cut bets weighed on sentiment.
Outlook: GBP/USD may remain rangebound ahead of US CPI data. UK PMIs and BoE commentary will be key for direction.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades between 1.1580 and 1.1620, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMIs. October Services PMI rose to 52.6, its highest in 12 months, while Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.0. German PMIs also beat forecasts, with Services rising to 54.5.
Outlook: Euro may gain if US CPI data underwhelms. ECB tone and trade developments will influence momentum.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD trades near 0.6500 after mixed Australian PMI data. October Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, while Services rose to 53.1. Composite PMI edged up to 52.6. The AUD remains pressured by rising RBA rate cut expectations, now priced at 74%, following a spike in unemployment.
Outlook: AUD may remain volatile ahead of next week’s Q3 CPI. US-China trade talks and domestic data will guide direction.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD trades around 1.4020, supported by risk-off sentiment and softer oil prices. Crude eased after US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, while Trump’s termination of Canada trade talks added uncertainty.
Outlook: CAD may weaken if Retail Sales disappoint. Oil price trends and US CPI data will be pivotal.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF consolidates around 0.7960 ahead of US inflation data. The Franc remains steady as SNB minutes showed no urgency for policy changes, despite persistent deflation.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain rangebound unless US CPI surprises. SNB tone and trade developments will shape CHF direction.
Final Summary
Sterling remains soft despite upbeat retail data, as BoE rate cut expectations persist. The Euro finds support from stronger PMIs and improving consumer sentiment. The US Dollar holds firm ahead of CPI data, while trade tensions and the government shutdown add uncertainty. Commodity currencies are mixed, with AUD pressured by RBA cut bets and CAD weighed by oil softness and trade frictions. The Swiss Franc trades cautiously as SNB maintains its current stance.