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Market Insight 09-10-2025

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  • Market Insight 09-10-2025

Daily Market Update: 9 October 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

  • Summary: The GBP/EUR pair is losing ground and weakening below 1.15 in the early European session.
  • Outlook: The Euro (EUR) is edging higher against the Pound Sterling (GBP) as French President Emmanuel Macron is set to appoint a new Prime Minister within the next 48 hours in the latest effort to end political turmoil. This announcement could offer some near-term support to the Euro, but lingering political uncertainty in France might continue to limit the potential upside for the cross. On the Pound’s front, Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill said that central bankers should adopt a “conservative” approach to setting interest rates.

GBP/USD

  • Summary: The pair is trading with mild gains around 1.3405 in the early Asian session, snapping a two-day losing streak, but remains under bearish pressure below 1.3400 in the European morning.
  • Outlook: The US Dollar (USD) is softening against Pound Sterling (GBP) amid concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown, which has entered its ninth day. The upside for the pair might be capped due to increased uncertainty over the BoE’s monetary policy outlook, particularly after BoE’s Pill advocated a “conservative” approach to rate-setting.

EUR/USD

  • Summary: The pair stays on the back foot and is declining toward 1.1600 in the European session.
  • Outlook: The Euro’s (EUR) upside attempts remain frail, as France’s political uncertainty continues to weigh on investor sentiment. Although the French President’s plan to announce a new Prime Minister within 48 hours offered some calm, the broader political drama keeps the pair vulnerable. The European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its September policy meeting later today, with ECB policymaker Philip Lane also scheduled to speak.

AUD/USD

  • Summary: The Australian Dollar lost its daily gains as traders adopt caution.
  • Outlook: The loss of gains comes ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech. Supporting the currency, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for October rose to 4.8% from 4.7% previously, marking the highest level since June.

USD/CAD

  • Summary: The pair is consolidating around 1.3960 after trading in a tight range on Wednesday.
  • Outlook: The upside for the pair is likely to be capped by higher crude oil prices, which benefit the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). However, the US Dollar (USD) is expected to receive support from the cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

USD/CHF

  • Summary: The pair is trading with mild losses below 0.8000 in the European session, retreating from its two-month high.
  • Outlook: The pair remains subdued as traders adopt caution ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech. The downside is limited as the Swiss Franc (CHF) faces pressure due to easing Swiss job market conditions, which keeps alive hopes that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could push interest rates into negative territory.

Final Summary

The focus today is entirely on central bank officials, including Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, who will deliver welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference via a pre-recorded video. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Fed Governor Michael Barr will also be speaking.

Late Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed’s September policy meeting confirmed that policymakers are leaning toward further rate cuts this year, citing heightened labour market risks and a more balanced inflation outlook. This consensus for easing is unlikely to be changed today by the speakers due to the absence of key economic data, which has been postponed as the US government shutdown enters its ninth day. The Senate, once again, failed to advance a stopgap funding bill on Wednesday.

Early Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas agreed on a peace plan that could see hostages released by next Monday, leading to a marginal rise in US stock index futures.