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Market Insight 29-09-2025

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  • Market Insight 29-09-2025

Daily Market Update: 29 September 2025

Key Currency Pair Movements

GBP/EUR

  • Summary: The GBP/EUR cross is attracting some buyers above 1.1450.
  • Outlook: Pound Sterling (GBP) is being supported by the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term. BoE policymakers have warned of upside inflation risks, which is supporting a cautious approach to further easing. Persistent conflict between Russia and Ukraine could weigh on the Euro (EUR).

GBP/USD

  • Summary: The pair is extending its rebound in the European morning and is gaining more than 0.3% on the day, trading at around 1.3450.
  • Outlook: The pair is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) slides, pressured by the heightened risk of a US government shutdown by the end of Tuesday.

EUR/USD

  • Summary: The pair is building on Friday’s gains and trades in positive territory above 1.1700 in the European morning.
  • Outlook: The Euro is capitalising on the US Dollar’s retreat, as the USD starts the week on the back foot due to US government shutdown concerns. Attention is on Eurozone business and consumer sentiment data due for release later today.

AUD/USD

  • Summary: AUD/USD is gaining traction and trades above 0.6550 early Monday after falling 0.7% in the previous week.
  • Outlook: The pair is benefiting from the renewed US Dollar weakness. Traders are looking ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision on Tuesday.

USD/CAD

  • Summary: The pair is showing a slight decline, with the exchange rate currently around 1.3917.
  • Outlook: The US Dollar is retreating across the board due to concerns over a potential US government shutdown, which is weighing on the pair.

USD/CHF

  • Summary: The USD/CHF pair is trading in the red for the fourth successive session, hovering around 0.7960.
  • Outlook: The pair is depreciating due to the sliding US Dollar, which is pressured by US government shutdown risks. Additionally, the US August inflation report has increased the likelihood of a further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in October.

Final Summary

The US Dollar (USD) is retreating at the start of the week, pressured by the heightened risk of a US government shutdown, which US President Donald Trump is set to discuss with congressional leaders today. This caution is driving Gold to a new record-high above $3,800. In the UK, Pound Sterling is finding support from the Bank of England’s (BoE) cautious stance on rate cuts, with policymakers citing upside inflation risks. The Eurozone is due to release business and consumer sentiment data today, while the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its monetary policy decision on Tuesday. Markets are also concerned that a shutdown could delay the release of September employment data this Friday.