30/09/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 11th September 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR trades calmly near 1.1550 ahead of the ECB’s monetary policy decision. The Euro remains steady as markets expect the ECB to hold rates at 2% for a second consecutive meeting. Traders will focus on President Lagarde’s press conference for guidance on future easing, especially amid political uncertainty in France and rising trade tensions. Sterling is supported by improved UK consumer spending and fiscal reassurance from Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.
Outlook: Eurozone GDP and Lagarde’s tone will guide near-term direction. Sterling may find support if Friday’s UK GDP and factory data show resilience.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD edges lower to 1.3515 ahead of US CPI data. The Dollar holds firm near a three-day high as traders await inflation figures to gauge the size of next week’s Fed rate cut. Market pricing reflects an 8% chance of a 50bps cut, with the remainder expecting a standard 25bps move.
Outlook: GBP/USD may react sharply to US CPI. Softer inflation could lift Sterling, while a hot print may reinforce USD strength. UK GDP data on Friday remains a key domestic trigger.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD trades flat around 1.1700 as investors await the ECB decision and US CPI release. The Euro faces pressure from expectations of a “dovish hold” by the ECB and geopolitical concerns, including recent NATO airspace breaches.
Outlook: Lagarde’s press conference and US inflation data will be pivotal. A dovish ECB and soft US CPI could support EUR/USD, but political risks may cap gains.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD dips despite rising Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations, which climbed to 4.7% in September. The Aussie remains underpinned by strong domestic data and fading RBA rate cut bets, with swaps pricing an 86% chance of no change this month.
Outlook: AUD may rebound if US CPI supports Fed easing. Chinese data and RBA commentary will shape medium-term sentiment.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD holds firm near 1.3875, supported by BoC rate cut expectations and cautious sentiment ahead of US CPI. Canada’s weak August jobs data and rising unemployment have increased the likelihood of further easing.
Outlook: US CPI will be key for USD direction. CAD may remain pressured unless oil prices recover or BoC signals restraint.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF extends gains to 0.8000, buoyed by USD strength and dovish SNB commentary. Chairman Schlegel’s remarks on potential negative rates have weighed on the Franc, while traders await US CPI for further cues.
Outlook: USD/CHF may remain supported if US inflation surprises to the upside. SNB policy signals and geopolitical tensions will also influence direction.
Final Summary
Sterling trades cautiously ahead of UK GDP data, while the Euro steadies ahead of the ECB decision. The US Dollar holds firm as markets await CPI data to confirm the size of next week’s Fed rate cut. Commodity currencies are mixed, with AUD supported by strong domestic data and CAD weighed by soft employment figures. The Swiss Franc remains under pressure following dovish SNB commentary. Today’s inflation data and central bank guidance will be pivotal for near-term FX direction.