30/09/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 10th September 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR rises to near 1.1560, supported by stronger UK consumer spending and cautious ECB expectations. BRC Like-For-Like Retail Sales marked the strongest growth in four months, while Finance Minister Rachel Reeves reiterated fiscal discipline ahead of the November budget. The Euro remains steady ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, with rates expected to remain unchanged.
Outlook: Sterling may remain supported if UK data continues to show resilience. Eurozone GDP and ECB commentary will guide direction, with French political uncertainty and NATO airspace breaches adding downside risk to the Euro.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD trades around 1.3530, steady after Tuesday’s pullback. The Pound is supported by upbeat sentiment and expectations that the BoE will hold rates next week. The Dollar remains rangebound ahead of US PPI data, with traders pricing in a 25bps Fed cut and watching for inflation signals.
Outlook: GBP/USD may gain if US inflation data underwhelms. UK GDP and factory data on Friday will be key for Sterling sentiment.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD dips below 1.1700 as geopolitical tensions weigh. Reports of Russian drones entering Polish airspace have rattled markets, while traders await US PPI and CPI data for inflation cues. ECB is expected to hold rates steady on Thursday.
Outlook: Euro may remain pressured if geopolitical risks escalate. US inflation data and Lagarde’s press conference will be pivotal for near-term direction.
AUD/USD
Summary: AUD/USD climbs to near 0.6600, supported by risk-on sentiment and fading RBA rate cut bets. Traders anticipate Fed easing next week, while Australian GDP and trade data continue to underpin the Aussie.
Outlook: AUD may remain firm if US inflation data supports dovish Fed expectations. Chinese economic signals and domestic inflation trends will guide medium-term moves.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD strengthens above 1.3850, driven by trade deal uncertainty and weak Canadian data. Tariff concerns and a soft August jobs report weigh on the Loonie, while traders await US PPI for inflation guidance.
Outlook: CAD may remain under pressure unless trade negotiations improve. US CPI and Canadian economic updates will shape direction.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF holds steady below 0.8000, consolidating after Tuesday’s rebound. The Dollar is capped by Fed rate cut bets, while safe-haven demand supports the Franc amid rising geopolitical tensions. Traders await SNB Chairman Schlegel’s speech and US inflation data.
Outlook: USD/CHF may drift lower if US inflation data disappoints. SNB commentary and global risk sentiment will be key drivers.
Final Summary
Sterling gains on strong consumer spending and fiscal reassurance, while the Euro faces pressure from geopolitical tensions and cautious ECB expectations. The US Dollar trades steadily ahead of key inflation data, with Fed rate cut bets still elevated. Commodity currencies like AUD and CAD diverge, with the Aussie supported by domestic resilience and the Loonie weighed by trade uncertainty. The Swiss Franc remains firm on safe-haven flows, with attention turning to SNB and US inflation signals.