01/10/2025
Written by: Ian Morley
Daily Currency Market Update – 15th August 2025
GBP/EUR
Summary: GBP/EUR edged lower as the Euro gained modest support ahead of the Trump–Putin summit in Alaska. Optimism over a potential ceasefire in Ukraine lifted the single currency, while Sterling softened slightly after failing to extend gains from Thursday’s upbeat UK GDP and factory data.
Outlook: If peace talks progress and Eurozone sentiment improves, GBP/EUR may remain under pressure. However, BoE caution and resilient UK growth could limit downside. Eurozone inflation and UK CPI next week will be pivotal.
GBP/USD
Summary: GBP/USD dipped to 1.3540 after hot US PPI data triggered a Dollar rebound. Producer inflation rose 0.9% MoM and 3.3% YoY, the fastest pace in three years, raising doubts over a September Fed rate cut. Sterling remains supported by strong UK GDP and tempered BoE easing expectations.
Outlook: US Retail Sales and Michigan Sentiment will guide direction. If US data impresses and Fed rhetoric shifts, GBP/USD may face resistance near 1.3600.
EUR/USD
Summary: EUR/USD held above 1.1650 after retreating from two-week highs near 1.1735. The Euro remains supported by peace hopes and Fed rate cut expectations, though upside is capped by weak Eurozone industrial data and cautious ECB tone.
Outlook: US data and Fed commentary will be key. If inflation concerns persist and risk sentiment fades, EUR/USD may consolidate below 1.1700.
USD/AUD
Summary: AUD/USD rebounded to 0.6520 after Thursday’s sharp decline, supported by stable risk sentiment and expectations of further Fed easing. China’s weaker Retail Sales and Industrial Production weighed, but the Aussie found support from strong domestic employment data.
Outlook: If US data disappoints and Fed cut bets rise, AUD/USD may attempt further gains. RBA guidance and Chinese growth signals remain influential.
USD/CAD
Summary: USD/CAD hovered near 1.3800, steady after Thursday’s rally driven by strong US PPI and soft Canadian fundamentals. Oil prices remain subdued despite a modest recovery, while BoC commentary suggests rate cuts are possible if trade-driven inflation eases.
Outlook: US Retail Sales and Canadian CPI next week will be pivotal. If Fed dovishness returns and oil stabilises, USD/CAD may drift lower.
USD/CHF
Summary: USD/CHF held firm near 0.8070 after surging on hot US PPI data. The Swiss Franc remains pressured by weak domestic inflation and a 0.9% drop in producer prices, fuelling speculation of negative SNB rates.
Outlook: If US inflation accelerates and SNB signals dovish intent, USD/CHF may remain elevated. Tariff developments and Fed commentary will shape direction.
Final Summary
Sterling softened slightly after Thursday’s rally, while the Euro gained on peace optimism and Fed cut expectations. The US Dollar rebounded on strong producer inflation, though traders remain cautious ahead of Retail Sales and sentiment data. Commodity-linked currencies like the Aussie and Loonie are mixed, and the Swiss Franc faces headwinds from weak inflation and tariff pressure. Markets now turn to US data and the Trump–Putin meeting for fresh momentum.